NFL Conference Championship Game Previews
Lineups, Projections, and Bets for Round 3 of the NFL Playoffs
Divisional Round Review
In the first game of the weekend I had Houston +9.5 and over 43.5. I expected Stroud and the Texans to be able to score, but man that Ravens defense was just phenomenal. A punt return and a late field goal propelled this game over for a lucky win.
In the Saturday nightcap, I had the Green Bay 1H team total over 9.5 which just missed after two drives to the red zone ended in field goals. The Packers turned it on in the second half to reach their full game team total of over 20.5.
The only bet I had in Tampa Bay/Detroit was Mike Evans over 69.5 receiving yards. This flew over as Evans erupted for 147 receiving yards.
My biggest bet of the week was on Mahomes and the Chiefs. The two bets I wrote up were KC +3 and Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns, but also had big wins on Chiefs moneyline and the over.
Through two weeks of writing this column my picks are 9-2, winning 7.05 units.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
I was heavily invested in the Chiefs last week and impressed with the performance they had. The defense held up when they needed to, and the offense just torched an injured Bills defense. Mahomes was just unconscious last Sunday with a 90.2 PFF grade, 0.57 EPA/play, and 18.2 CPOE. If it weren’t for the ridiculous Mecole Hardman touches, the Chiefs probably would’ve won that game by two scores.
The Ravens will be a much more difficult test. Instead of dropping back and seeing A.J. Klein and Dorian Williams out in coverage against you, it will be Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Patrick Queen, Marlon Humphrey, and Marcus Williams. Baltimore has the highest rated defense I’ve had in my three years of doing this. They will probably add Humphrey back to that unit as well this week.
The team I was highest on before the season was the Baltimore Ravens. I picked Lamar Jackson to win the MVP and the Ravens to lose to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The more this season progresses, the more it feels like this is Lamar and the Ravens’ year.
There are a few injuries to monitor in this game. It sounds like all good news on Baltimore’s side as they should be at full strength with Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphrey returning to the lineup, unless I’m missing something there. Joe Thuney is highly questionable for the Chiefs and would be a big loss against the strong interior defensive line the Ravens possess. I’d expect he grits through it and plays, but won’t be at peak performance. Isiah Pacheco is banged up but will play, and it sounds like Willie Gay will also be in the lineup despite battling a neck injury. The only other notable injury for KC is safety Mike Edwards who is dealing with a concussion. Even if he can’t go, rookie Chamarri Conner deserves to play over him anyway. Conner was outstanding last week with a 90.2 PFF grade.
With no major injuries to either side, this is a pretty straightforward projection. My numbers like the Ravens. I’m already invested in Baltimore with a +1240 AFC ticket and a +2200 Super Bowl ticket at stake in this game, so I’ve only placed a small bet on Ravens moneyline at -171. That number is now long gone. I’ve also bet Lamar Jackson over 59.5 rush yards, but that is now up to 65.5.
With those numbers gone, there isn’t anything that I love in this game. This is the game to just sit back and enjoy watching. If I had to bet something, I’d take the Ravens. It’s tough to stomach betting against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, but Lamar has been playing out of his mind this season and the Ravens defense will provide enough margin for error for Baltimore to cover this number.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
I can’t believe we are talking about the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game. Impressive job done by Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell over the past few years.
My numbers like the Lions in this game. I’m frightened to back Jared Goff on the road against this 49ers defense, but I don’t think they are as dominant as the units they’ve had the past few years. I’m also not sure why Logan Ryan is starting over Ji’Ayir Brown, although that’s pretty meaningless in handicapping this game. Both defenses appear to be fully healthy as the only notable injuries are on the offensive side of the ball. The Lions replaced TE2 Brock Wright with 33-year-old Zach Ertz. Wright wasn’t good so this shouldn’t have an impact as Ertz is also: not good. The big injury for the Lions is guard Jonah Jackson, who is a solid player. He was replaced by third-year UDFA Kayode Awosika who was awful in 46 snaps of relief last week. That will be a point of attack for Steve Wilks and the Niners defensive line.
The big injury for the 49ers is Deebo Samuel. I’m writing this Wednesday afternoon and it was announced that Deebo will not be practicing today with a shoulder injury. Shanahan said he’s “feeling better” and Schefter said it sounds like a true 50-50 shot he plays. I’m going to project him in, but do not expect to see a fully healthy, fully utilized, full speed Deebo.
I think this game rests on the shoulders of Brock Purdy. The Lions defense has been good against the rush this season, although the 49ers running game is a different beast. If Detroit can slow down their rushing attack, it’s on Purdy to beat this very-beatable team through the air. If they are down Deebo that gets a bit tougher.
I’ve got three bets in this game. My model likes the Lions so I'm going to take them and the seven points. I also like a two props. Detroit needs to push all their chips in to beat San Francisco in this game and I think that means giving Jahmyr Gibbs a larger role. The 49ers can be ran on. They rank 25th in EPA/rush allowed and 27th in success rate. Even if Gibbs only receives 7-10 carries, his over is still in play as he has the 2nd-most 15+ yard runs (16) this season on only the 25th most carries in the league (199). We saw last week how the rookie’s fresh legs give him so much more juice than most players on the field as he outran Antoine Winfield Jr., one of the best safeties in the league, to the pylon for a 31-yard score.
The other prop I like is Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 receiving yards. If Deebo is out or limited, I think Purdy will rely on CMC more in the passing game. He had 12! targets last week, and has had at least five targets in his last four games. Shanahan will scheme him up.
Detroit +7 (-105)
Jahmyr Gibbs over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 receiving yards (-110)