After writing my first betting preview last week, my projections cooled down a bit last week. I went 6-10 (.375) overall and was 3-6 (.333) on written picks bringing the season total to 26-22 (.542). My biggest hits from last week were the Chargers (+6.5), Saints (+3), and Packers (+3) all winning outright. The biggest misses were the Buccaneers (-1), Eagles (+4), and Ravens (-7.5).
My current team rankings:
The biggest risers in my ratings this week are the Rams, Vikings, and Raiders. I’ve been lower than the market on the Rams so far this season but with a convincing win over Brady and the Bucs I am buying in now. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings looked great against a good Seattle team this week. Minnesota is a Dalvin Cook fumble in overtime and a missed 37-yard field goal away from being 3-0. The Raiders have been on the opposite side of luck with two overtime wins through three weeks but they have exceeded my expectations for them coming into the season so I am continuing to upgrade their rating. The rise up the rankings from Minnesota and Las Vegas are propelled by Cousins’ and Carr’s continuing to play well.
The biggest fallers in my ratings are the Steelers, Bears, and Jaguars. Big Ben looks cooked at this point and their offense without Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster resorted to targetting the running back 19 times. The theme on Twitter the past few days has been film people coming up for air after watching the Bears’ tape from Week 3. Fields debut was about as worse as you could imagine as he posted -0.5 EPA/play with a 24% success rate. The Jaguars got some more special teams luck this week with a 109-yard field goal return but even that wasn’t enough to cover as they continued to look like one of the league’s worst teams.
Heading into Week 4 it’s important to deemphasize preseason priors a bit more and start to take surprise performances across the league more seriously. That being said there are some big question marks about teams who have faced easy/hard schedules. Looking at team records this early in the season is a fairly pointless exercise for predicting future performance as this Pythagorean win chart from @greerreNFL on Twitter shows there is some wide varience between actual and Pythagorean wins through three weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
CIN -7.5, O/U 46
Projection: CIN -4.2
As 7.5 point favorites this week, it looks ike the Bengals are going to advance to 3-1 and hold first place of the AFC North. My numbers show a bit of an edge on the Jaguars and I originally wrote this up with no pick, but after Tee Higgins, Jessie Bates, and likely Chidobe Awuzie were declared out, I’ll take the Jaguars. The variance with Trevor Lawrence is high as he ranks third in the league in ADOT with the highest turnover worthy play percentage. We’ve seen the flashes of him with great throws to Chark and Jones Jr. this season so if Lawrence is able to hit a couple more of those while limiting turnovers, the Jags could pull off the upset.
Pick: Jacksonville +7.5
Washington Football Team (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
ATL +1.5, O/U 48
Projection: ATL +2.4
This game is pretty ugly and it’s tough to gauge where either of these teams are at this point. Matt Ryan and Taylor Heinicke rank 27th and 28th in PFF passing grade this season and have led bottom 10 offenses. The hope I had for Arthur Smith making the most of the potential this Falcons offense has had not come to fruition. #4 overall pick, Kyle Pitts, is currently tied with superstar running back Cordarrelle Patterson in targets and is below Mike Davis which is mistifying to me. Smith and Ryan need to get this offense back on track if the Falcons are going to be a competent team this year and it’s tough to have faith in them to do that through three weeks. My numbers show an edge on the Football Team but I’m staying away from this one. The defense was supposed to be the reason this team had a chance in the NFC East this year but is fourth-worst in EPA/play through three weeks. Combine that with poor quarterback play and I want no part in betting this game.
Pick: None
Houston Texans (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)
BUF -15.5, O/U 47
Projection: BUF -11.8
I’m projecting a much closer game than the market but this another one I don’t want to bet. Despite some shaky play from Josh Allen so far this season, he appeared to be back to his usual self this past Sunday with 83.8 PFF grade. This is the largest spread of the season so far but Buffalo has shown they can blow teams out with their league-leading +50 point differential. Playing against this awful Texans roster with Davis Mills who ranks dead last in offensive grade among quarterbacks at the helm is a recipe for another Buffalo blowout.
Pick: None
Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-2)
CHI -2.5, O/U 41.5
Projection: CHI -2.3
The Justin Fields era got off to a rocky start last week but he will face a much easier opponent here. The Lions defense ranks 31st in PFF grade and EPA/play this season but have a pass rush that has grades 7th-best by PFF with good play out of Romeo Okwara, Charles Harris, and some of their rotational rushers. Cleveland’s pressure wrecked the Bears offense last week but Chicago’s receivers should be able to get some more seperation for Fields against a Detroit team that has been the leagues’ worst in coverage. My numbers show a slight edge on the Lions but I think Fields looks better this week and Matt Nagy can give him at least a little bit of help.
Pick: None
Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
DAL -5, O/U 50.5
Projection: DAL -2.9
I invested in heavily in Cowboys futures this offseason and have been impressed with how they’ve played so far this season. The defense has looked surprisingly competent and Dak is leading PFF’s highest grading offense despite coming off injury and losing Michael Gallup. I bet the under on the Panthers win total before the season but Sam Darnold and the defense have looked great. Darnold is 10th in PFF passing grade and the Panthers have the league’s best defense in PFF Grade and EPA/play. I think the market is overrating the loss of Christian McCaffrey which could explain some of the difference between my number and the market. Both defenses have outplayed their talent level, Dallas has the much better quarterback and offense, but the Panthers have a huge coaching advantage so I’m taking them and the points in this one.
Pick: Carolina +5
Indianapolis Colts (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)
MIA -1.5, O/U 42.5
Projection: MIA +0.8
These are two teams that I have zero interest in watching as both have been disappointing. Both have poor offenses led by poor quarterbacks with the Dolphins having an edge on defense. My numbers have about a two-point edge on the Colts but there isn’t much value between -1.5 and +0.8 so I’m staying away from this game. The winner of this game is the Philadelphia Eagles who hold each of these teams’ first round picks.
Pick: None
Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
MIN +2, O/U 51.5
Projection: MIN +2
I am a Vikings fan and after watching Greg Joseph miss that 37-yarder in Arizona I was ready to pack it in on this season and the Mike Zimmer era. However, an impressive performance by Cousins vs Seattle has me back on the bandwagon. If Minnesota was able to close out those games in Cincinnati and Arizona, Cousins would be deserving of some MVP talk right now. He is playing some of the best football in his career ranking third in PFF passing grade. Cousins has shown he can go on these hot streaks from time to time so it’s tough to count on this play going forward. Cleveland has been workmen-like in their in wins over Houston and Chicago after a close loss in Kansas City. The offense has been efficient this season and the defense was dominant last week led by DPOY frontrunner Myles Garrett. My numbers are in line with the market so I have no bet for this game which should be a fun one with Kevin Stefanski returning to Minnesota. If you really want something on the line in this game, Minnesota as a teaser leg at +8 is a solid bet.
Pick: None
New York Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1)
NO -7.5, O/U 41.5
Projection: NO -3.2
Despite the 0-3 record, Daniel Jones has quietly been great this season. He ranks fourth in PFF passing grade but has been held back by poor coaching and a middling supporting cast. The Saints have been a bit of a rollercoaster with two dominant wins and an awful loss. New Orleans is relying on their running game which grades 2nd by PFF and defense which ranks fourth in EPA/play and 8th in PFF grade. I’m not sure what the perception of Jameis really is right now but he hasn’t been good this season. He ranks 31st in PFF passing grade ranking 5th in turnover worthy play percentage and all the way down at 24th in big time throw percentage. The Saints should be able to ride their run game and defense to a win here, but 7.5 is too many points for Jameis to cover.
Pick: New York +7.5
Tennessee Titans (2-1) @ New York Jets (0-3)
NYJ +7, O/U 44
Projection: NYJ +3.7
I really did not want to bet on the Jets this week as the offense has been awful but my numbers show a nice edge on New York again. I bet this at 7.5 right after the Julio Jones injury was announced but I think it is still a solid bet at 7. If Jones and Brown are out, the Titans pass catching options will be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and Cameron Batson. Before the season it was tough to find a position group worse than the Jets corners but this Titans pass catching group might top it. The Jets defense has graded poorly but been okay in terms of EPA/play and with Fatukasi, Williams, Franklin-Myers, and Lawson, it seems like they should be able to stop the Titans run game. The Titans defense hasn’t been awful but is still below league average so Zach Wilson and the Jets should be able to put up enough points to score enough to cover against a depleted Titans offense.
Pick: NYJ +7
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
PHI +7, O/U 54.5
Projection: PHI +6
The fourth-place Chiefs are seven-point favorites on the road in Philadelphia. Mahomes hasn’t looked like his usual self through three weeks but the Chiefs offense still ranks second in EPA/play and we know they are just too good to not put up a bunch of points. The defense has been the issue for the Chiefs as they rank last in EPA/play and PFF grade with an abysmal run defense grade. I’m not sure what the solution is but it will be tough to solve this week as the Eagles rushing attack has graded well and boasts a quarterback rushing threat which gave the Chiefs major problems against Baltimore allowing 0.53 EPA/rush and a 50% success rate. I kind of like the Eagles in this one but don’t have enough of an edge to be confident enough to bet.
Pick: None
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
LAR -4.5, O/U 55
Projection: LAR -5.7
Two of the hottest teams in the league square off in LA for the NFC West lead. Both teams are top 10 in PFF offense grade, defense grade, and offensive EPA/play with the Cardinals defense ranking 5th in EPA/play and the Rams 11th. These teams are also first and third among the biggest risers in my ratings this season. For this game, I like the Rams. I’m hesitant to bet on them coming off their win over Tampa Bay as I don’t want to overreact too much to one game along with the amount of hype they’ve been getting from the media and public. I also hate using historical ATS records to bet on games but the way the Rams have dominated the Cardinals in the McVay era along with the 1.2-point edge I have on the Rams make this a bettable side for me. In their last ten meetings, the Rams are 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 against the spread. This should be an awesome game to watch so putting a little bit down on the Rams -4.5 could make your late afternoon a lot of fun.
Pick: Rams -4.5
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
SF -2.5, O/U 52
Projection: -1
Russell Wilson hasn’t been playing at his usual top-5 level but has still been a great quarterback leading an offense ranking 6th in EPA/play. The defense has been the scapegoat for this team but has been about average in PFF grade and EPA/play. They certainly could use better play calling but I think we could see a resuregence from the defense as the season progresses much like last year. Kyle Shanahan is coaching an offense ranked 5th in EPA/play and 13th in PFF grade but is being held back by Jimmy G who ranks 26th in PFF passing grade. He looked much better in the second half on Sunday Night but it still feels like the 49ers offense is just leaving a lot on the table by not playing Trey Lance. These teams are pretty evenly matched so and I’d make this game closer to a pick. I wouldn’t bet Seattle at 2.5 but they are a great teaser leg if you can find something to pair them with.
Pick: Seattle +8.5 with Baltimore +7, Green Bay -0.5, or Tampa Bay -1
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0)
DEN -1, O/U 45
Projection: DEN +0.1
Teddy Bridgewater has been fantastic, ranking 9th in PFF passing grade, 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in CPOE, and 1st in success rate. Denver has also had a dominant defense that ranks 3rd in EPA/play and 4th in PFF grade. The Broncos have been nothing but great so far but there are still some question marks about this team. The offense has taken a hit with the loss of Jeudy and Hamler and the three teams they’ve played all rank within the bottom seven of my team ratings. The Ravens offense has been good and Lamar is pushing the ball downfield with a league-leading 12.7 ADOT. That has resulted in him ranking third in big time throw percentage and fourth in turnover worthy play percentage. Baltimore and Jackson’s numbers could look a lot better and they wouldn’t have had to squeek out a win in Detroit if Marquise Brown had caught just one of the three wide open deep balls that Lamar put right on him last week. The defense has played two good quarterbacks but ranks a concerning 23rd in PFF grade and 21st in EPA/play. Their tackling and coverage grades have been awful as Patrick Queen, Malik Harrison, Tavon Young, and Tyus Bowser have played very poorly. Much like Baltimore’s first three games I think this one comes down to the wire and I think close to a pick-em is a fair price for this game. The best way to play this game is to tease it with something.
Pick: Baltimore +7 with Seattle +8.5, Green Bay -0.5, or Tampa Bay -1
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)
GB -6.5, O/U 45.5
Projection: GB -5.6
Big Ben and the Steelers are bad. Roethlisberger ranks 29th in PFF grade and 28th in EPA+CPOE. Pittsburgh will need to get Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and T.J. Watt back if they want a chance this week as Big Ben was forced to target Najee Harris a whopping 19 times last week. Rodgers has had two good games after his a poor, outlier performance in Week 1 and has the Packers looking back on track. The offense leads the league in EPA/play the past two weeks and the defense has returned to league average. My numbers think 6.5 is too many points but I love the Packers teased down to a pick em.
Pick: Green Bay -0.5 with Baltimore +7, Seattle +8.5 or Tampa Bay -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ New England Patriots (1-2)
NE +7, O/U 49
Projection: NE +6.4
The most anticipated matchup of the week is Brady’s return to New England. Despite losing to the Rams last week, I still have Tampa first in my team ratings. Brady is first in PFF passing grade but the Bucs offense ranks 11th in EPA/play. The Patriots defense has been good, but the Buccaneers should have no problem moving the ball on them. As for the Patriots offense, Mac Jones has been the best of a horrible group of rookie quarterbacks so far ranking 21st in PFF passing grade and 24th in EPA/play + CPOE. The Buccaneers have played two elite offenses so there defense has looked average so far but they should be able to stifle New England’s below average offense. I think seven points is too much but the Bucs pose a fantastic teaser opportunity.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1 with Baltimore +7, Seattle +8.5 or Green Bay -0.5
Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-1)
LAC -3.5, O/U 52.5
Projection: LAC -1.7
The Raiders and Chargers are seperated by 0.1 wins in my projections in a battle for the 7th playoff seed in the AFC so this is a pivotal game. Herbert and Carr are top five in PFF passing grade and have benefitted from great performances through three weeks from their receiving options. The Raiders run game has been dreadful ranking dead last in EPA/rush and PFF run block grade. The Chargers run defense has been about equally as bad ranking 31st in PFF run defense grade and 29th in EPA/rush. The Raiders pass rush has been one of the biggest breakout stories of the year as Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have graded as top 20 pass rushers. Slater has been great at left tackle but Storm Norton has been one of the league’s worst in pass protection so the Raiders should be able to generate pressure at will from that side of the line. This shouldn’t matter too much as Herbert has been great under pressure with PFF’s 7th highest passing grade under pressure with zero turnover worthy plays. The coaches, quarterbacks, and weaons are good so this should be an exciting, high-scoring game on Monday Night. My projections lean towards the Raiders and but I’m staying away from this one as I don’t want to bet against Herbert and one of my favorite coaches in the league, Brandon Staley
Pick: None
Picks:
Jacksonville +7.5
Carolina +5
New York Giants +7.5
New York Jets +7
Los Angeles Rams -4.5
Teaser Legs:
Seattle +8.5, Baltimore +7, Green Bay -0.5, Tampa Bay -1