Overall Record: 78-67-1 (0.538) Last Week: 5-8 (0.385) Picks Record: 19-26-1 (0.422) Last Week’s Picks: 1-6 (0.143) New England Patriots (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5) ATL +7.5, O/U 48 Projection: ATL +5.8 Matt Ryan’s hot streak came to a screeching halt as the Cowboys dominated the Falcons last week. They will likely be without Cordarrelle Patterson this week but I still expect Ryan and Falcons’ 9th-ranked offense in EPA/play to bounce back. That is going to be tough against a good Patriots defense and PFF’s 5th-highest graded quarterback, Mac Jones. Jones continued his impressive rookie season with the best game of his young career last week. Atlanta is 21st in EPA/play allowed so expect Mac to continue his success on Thursday night. The Patriots have all the momentum and the Falcons are coming off one of the ugliest performances of the season but the market has overreacted too heavily to that. It’s hard for me to believe the Falcons are 7.5 points worse than the Patriots especially at home. Give me the Falcons.
Week 11 NFL Betting Preview
Week 11 NFL Betting Preview
Week 11 NFL Betting Preview
Overall Record: 78-67-1 (0.538) Last Week: 5-8 (0.385) Picks Record: 19-26-1 (0.422) Last Week’s Picks: 1-6 (0.143) New England Patriots (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5) ATL +7.5, O/U 48 Projection: ATL +5.8 Matt Ryan’s hot streak came to a screeching halt as the Cowboys dominated the Falcons last week. They will likely be without Cordarrelle Patterson this week but I still expect Ryan and Falcons’ 9th-ranked offense in EPA/play to bounce back. That is going to be tough against a good Patriots defense and PFF’s 5th-highest graded quarterback, Mac Jones. Jones continued his impressive rookie season with the best game of his young career last week. Atlanta is 21st in EPA/play allowed so expect Mac to continue his success on Thursday night. The Patriots have all the momentum and the Falcons are coming off one of the ugliest performances of the season but the market has overreacted too heavily to that. It’s hard for me to believe the Falcons are 7.5 points worse than the Patriots especially at home. Give me the Falcons.