Overall Record: 78-67-1 (0.538)
Last Week: 5-8 (0.385)
Picks Record: 19-26-1 (0.422)
Last Week’s Picks: 1-6 (0.143)
New England Patriots (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
ATL +7.5, O/U 48
Projection: ATL +5.8
Matt Ryan’s hot streak came to a screeching halt as the Cowboys dominated the Falcons last week. They will likely be without Cordarrelle Patterson this week but I still expect Ryan and Falcons’ 9th-ranked offense in EPA/play to bounce back. That is going to be tough against a good Patriots defense and PFF’s 5th-highest graded quarterback, Mac Jones. Jones continued his impressive rookie season with the best game of his young career last week. Atlanta is 21st in EPA/play allowed so expect Mac to continue his success on Thursday night. The Patriots have all the momentum and the Falcons are coming off one of the ugliest performances of the season but the market has overreacted too heavily to that. It’s hard for me to believe the Falcons are 7.5 points worse than the Patriots especially at home. Give me the Falcons.
Pick: Atlanta +7.5
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3)
BUF -7.5, O/U 50
Projection: BUF -6.2
Buffalo got right last week in a matchup against the putrid New York Jets but the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs connection appears to be reestablished. Indianapolis is 7th in EPA/play allowed but haven’t been great in coverage so I expect the Bills’ success through the air to continue. The Bills defense has been dominant itself as they’ve ranked in the top two in EPA/play allowed and PFF defense grade throughout the entire year. Wentz has been okay but is prone to some ugly mistake and Buffalo should be primed to take advantage of those. I have a slight edge on the Colts but I’d stay away from betting them, especially on the road.
Pick: None
Washington Football Team (3-6) @ Carolina Panthers (5-5)
CAR -3.5, O/U 43.5
Projection: CAR -2.5
Both teams are coming off wins over two of the best teams in the NFL. The Cam Newton era 2.0 returns to Carolina this week and while it’s tough to project how well Cam is going to play, we have to expect he’s an upgrade over Darnold and Walker at the very least. Carolina’s defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play allowed and they are 4th in coverage grade so it’s tough to have confidence in PFF’s 30th-ranked quarterback, Taylor Heinicke, in this spot. Washington’s defense lost Chase Young, but looked much better in the secondary last week so we may not see much through the air for either team. I think Carolina is a bit overvalued in this spot but I have no interest in betting against Cam and this Panthers defense that is playing so well against Heinicke and a shaky Washington team.
Pick: None
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-6)
CHI +4.5, O/U 45
Projection: CHI +6
The optimism surrounding Fields’ impressive Monday night performance from two weeks ago and the pessimism over the dud the Ravens laid on Thursday has caused this line to move quite a bit in Chicago’s favor. This is a great spot to fade those primetime narratives and bet Lamar and the Ravens. Lamar and the offense as a whole have been a bit overrated this year as Jackson is only 14th in PFF grade and the offense is 15th in EPA/play but Chicago’s defense ranks just 24th in EPA/play allowed and has graded terribly against both the run and in coverage. Chicago is coming off a bye and Fields continues to improve so I think we see a high scoring game, The Ravens are also coming off a long week of rest and they should bounce back so I like the Ravens and the over.
Pick: Baltimore -4.5
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) @ Cleveland Browns (5-5)
CLE -11.5, O/U 45
Projection: CLE -10.8
The Browns laid an egg in New England last week but have a get-right spot against Detroit here. Despite a few good games, Baker has been bad for the majority of this season but that shouldn’t matter as Cleveland is the best rushing team in the league and while Detroit hasn’t been that bad against the run, I think they can just pound Nick Chubb and D’Ernest Johnson to a win here. Jared Goff has been consitently bad and we might see some Tim Boyle action for the Lions soon but until then, Myles Garrett and the Browns 3rd-highest graded pass rush should be able to shut Goff down. Only way I could see the Lions covering this spread is if Man Campbell just pounds the rock against an average Browns run defense and manages to put up a few points in a low-scoring, ugly game similar to last week’s tie. I think this one is pretty straightforward and I don’t have much of an edge on either side so I’d stay away.
Pick: None
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
JAX +6, O/U 45
Projection: JAX +7.9
Jacksonville is coming off two covers in a row against some good teams and has the opportunity to get another one here. I think Lawrence has actually been pretty solid this year but has absolutely no help from his receivers or play-caller. San Francisco has been poor in coverage this year but that shouldn’t really matter here as Jacksonville hasn’t been able to get any sort of passing game production. The decision to stick with Jimmy G is starting to pay off for Shanahan as he has been great the last few games and absurdly good on third downs. It’s tough to bet on that sustaining but I don’t think it matters against a Jacksonville defense that they should be able to run on. San Francisco is 8th in EPA/rush, and 4th in run-block grade and the Jags rank 20th in EPA/rush allowed and 22nd in run defense grade. With this line at six points this is a great teaser opportunity.
Pick: San Francisco PK (with Miami +3)
Green Bay Packers (8-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
MIN +2.5, O/U 49.5
Projection: MIN +3.4
I think Rodgers and Green Bay are actually a bit overrated this year but I still show value on the Packers in this game. As crazy as it is to say, I’m not sure who has the quarterback advantage in this game. Cousins is 2nd in PFF grade and 18th in EPA+CPOE while Rodgers is 16th in PFF grade and 4th in EPA+CPOE. Green Bay’s offense has been much better as a whole and despite the Packers’ defensive improvement this year, the Vikings still have the edge there. Similar to last week’s Chargers/Vikings game, both teams’ biggest weakness has been run defense so this could be a Dalvin Cook vs AJ Dillon game. I have more trust in Rodgers and LaFleur to get the win here and my numbers show an edge on the Packers.
Pick: Green Bay -2.5
Miami Dolphins (3-7) @ New York Jets (2-7)
NYJ +3, O/U 45
Projection: NYJ +2.7
Christian Wilkins, Jevon Holland, and Emmanuel Ogbah have led a turnaround for the Dolphins’ defense that has jumped to 8th in EPA/play allowed after a poor start to the season. That’s going to continue this week against the 31nd-ranked offense in EPA/play that has now decided to turn to Joe Flacco to lead it. Tua is back in the lineup for Miami and while he hasn’t played great, he’s dominated the two bad defenses he played this season. The Jets’ have the worst coverage group in the league and rank 32nd in EPA/play allowed so Tua should have a strong day. My numbers are pretty in line with the market but I like a Dolphins teaser here.
Pick: Miami +3 (with San Francisco PK)
New Orleans Saints (5-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
PHI -1.5, O/U 43
Projection: PHI +2.5
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are starting to play some good football. The Eagles offense has been average over the course of the season but Hurts is up to 10th in PFF grade and the offense as a whole has been 1st in EPA/play over the last four weeks. They’ll face their toughest challenge of the season against New Orleans which is 5th in EPA/play allowed and 3rd in PFF defense grade. Trevor Siemian has kept the Saints offense functional despite the lack of weapons at his disposal. We could see a bad Siemian game any week but with the way he’s playing and the amount of talent on the Saints roster surrounding him, I think New Orleans is a solid bet here. I like them against the spread but would prefer to take them on the moneyline which you can find at +115 some places.
Pick: New Orleans +1.5
Houston Texans (1-8) @ Tennessee Titans (8-2)
TEN -10.5, O/U 44.5
Projection: TEN -11
We saw some early-season success from Tyrod and the Texans offense but he was awful in his return to the field two weeks ago. Maybe they’ve figured things out over the bye but points will still be tough to come by for Houston against Tennessee’s surprisingly good defense this year. They rank 14th in EPA/play allowed and have been great against the pass which Houston should have to do a lot in this game. There’s not much to say about the Titans’s offense as Tannehill has played well and they rank 7th in EPA/play despite dealing with some key injuries. This would be one of those games where Tennessee just feeds Henry on route to a massive win but even without him, they should be able to get that done. I like the Titans at home to blow out Houston.
Pick: Tennessee -10.5
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
LV +1, O/U 50
Projection: LV +0.6
Both of these teams looked like they were in for great seasons but have fallen off to just fighting for a wild-card spot. Burrow and Carr have both been good quarterbacks and lead offenses ranking 13th (LV) and 14th (CIN) in EPA/play. The defenses are both top 15 in EPA/play allowed so this is a matchup of two pretty good offenses against pretty good defenses. With these teams being so similar I think this game comes down to which quarterback or star players can just go out and win it. This should be a fun game to watch but with no real edge on this, I’m going to stay away.
Pick: None
Dallas Cowboys (7-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
KC -2.5, O/U 56
Projection: KC -0.2
Both teams are coming off their best performances of the season in Week 10. I’m not ready to buy into the Chiefs being 100% back yet, but they’ve certainly improved from the team we had to watch earlier this season. The Cowboys have been very impressive this year despite one weird slip-up vs Denver. Dak is 7th in PFF grade and has a now fully healthy Cowboys offense at 5th in EPA/play. Trevon Diggs and the defense has been hot and cold this year but they still rank 4th in EPA/play allowed. I think Dallas scores at will against a Chiefs defense that has improved, but is still bad. Kansas City is going to score as well, but I’m betting on Dallas’ young playmakers in Diggs and Parsons to make a few big plays here to give the Cowboys the win.
Pick: Dallas +2.5
Arizona Cardinals (8-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
SEA +2.5, O/U 49
Projection: SEA +1.4
It was an ugly return to the field for Russell Wilson as he put up a 33.9 PFF grade and zero points on the scoreboard. We should expect Russ to start playing like Russ again but he’s in a tough spot this week against the 3rd-ranked defense in EPA/play allowed. The Cardinals also should get Kyler Murray and potentially DeAndre Hopkins back for this game. I really just don’t know what to think about either of these teams right now and if I’d have to make a bet, I’d tease the Seahawks out to +8.5 at home, but I’m prefer to stay away.
Pick: None
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
LAC -5.5, O/U 47
Projection: LAC -4.5
I’m the biggest anti-Steelers and anti-Big Ben guy here, but even I have an edge on the Steelers. Roethlisberger’s status is uncertain for this game and as much as I think he sucks, Mason Rudolph is actually worse. I want to bet on a Justin Herbert bounce-back as I think he’s one of the most talented players in the league, but the Chargers just aren’t using him the way many think he should be. For a guy with such a talented and big arm, he has just the 5th-lowest ADOT in the league this season. Pittsburgh’s defense also ranks 6th in EPA/dropback allowed and despite a TJ Watt injury scare, it looks like they might have him in the lineup on Sunday night. I think the only side you can bet here is the Steelers and my numbers show an edge on them, but I’m the last guy who’s going to put my money on them.
Pick: None
New York Giants (3-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
TB -11.5, O/U 49.5
Projection: TB -10
Similar to last regular season, the Buccaneers just haven’t looked like the dominant team we know they can be. Brady is still 1st in PFF grade and has the offense 2nd in EPA/play, but the defense is down at 18th in EPA/play allowed, 19th in defense grade, and lost to Taylor Heinicke of all people. They really shouldn’t have any problem beating this Giants team but we’ve seen Daniel Jones go on some hot streaks and New York’s defense has been solid this year. I think Tampa will get right and should win this game, but 11.5 is a lot of points especially with New York coming off a bye and finally getting a chance to get some players healthy.
Pick: New York Giants +11.5
Picks:
Atlanta +7.5
Baltimore -4.5
Green Bay -2.5
New Orleans +1.5
Tennessee -10.5
Dallas +2.5
New York Giants +11.5
Teasers: San Francisco PK, Miami +3
Week 11 NFL Betting Preview