With four weeks to go in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and teams are being eliminated from contention. Opportunities in the futures market are getting slimmer, but there are still a few bets I like this week. Of the nine futures bets I've written up so far, seven are currently at better odds, so let's stay hot.
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East (+300)
The Bills have lost three of their last four and now sit at 7-6, two games out of 1st place in the AFC East. The Bills are at the lowest point in the market they've been at all season which makes this a great time to put some money on them. Buffalo's remaining schedule consists of home games vs. Carolina, Atlanta, and the Jets, where I make at least seven-point favorites in all three games with a win probability of at least 78% in all three games. While this team lost to the Jaguars this season as 14 point favorites, I'm confident in saying they will win those three games especially at home and with their backs against the wall. This bet will come down to two events happening. Buffalo needs to beat New England, and the Patriots need to lose just one additional game. Aside from the Buffalo game, the Patriots play Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Miami. They are 2.5 point underdogs this week against the Colts, and if they lose that game, a Buffalo win in New England will likely win them the division. That's a lot of "if" statements there, but Buffalo has the better quarterback, offense, and defense. The Patriots won the first game, but we can expect a rematch to not be nearly as windy as their last matchup, which took away the biggest advantage Buffalo has over New England, their passing offense. I project New England to win the division, and they likely will, but +300 is a great price to grab the Bills now.
Cooper Kupp to win offensive player of the year (+150)
Cooper Kupp has been putting up some insane numbers in his first year with Matthew Stafford under center. He leads the NFL in receptions (21 reception lead), receiving yards (201 yard lead), and receiving touchdowns (1 TD lead). Kupp has received a ton of volume but has remained incredibly efficient. He is 1st in yards per route run, 2nd in PFF grade, and has a 75.3% catch rate (17th). Kupp also has a chance to break the record for most receiving yards in a season. He needs 457 yards in his final four games, which would be 114.25 yards per game. He is currently average 114.54 yards per game, and with Robert Woods out for the year, Odell Beckham Jr. on the COVID list, and a great remaining schedule of opposing pass defenses, this volume and production should continue for Kupp. Jonathan Taylor is Kupp's only competition for this award as both are currently at +150. While Taylor has been productive, Kupp is on the better team, has an easier remaining schedule, and is putting up historic numbers. The combination of narrative and numbers surrounding Cooper Kupp's season makes him close to a lock for this award in my eyes, so betting this at +150 is a steal.
Los Angeles Chargers to win the Super Bowl (+2200)
The Chargers are my longshot bet of the week, as I think they are worth putting a couple of bucks on at these odds. Thursday night's game against the Chiefs is crucial for this bet as a win will put LA in great position to win the AFC West and get a few home playoff games. Betting on the Chargers is a bet on the upside of this team. The upside Justin Herbert presents with his cannon of an arm and great athleticism can be a trump card in playoff games against teams that are better all-around than the Chargers. They are dealing with some COVID issues right now, but the roster is fairly healthy outside of that, with Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James expected to return this week, and hope for Bryan Bulaga to return at some point this season. With an elite offense that ranks 6th in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, and 8th in PFF grade, their defense will be good enough to win some playoff games and make this a worthwhile bet slip to have in the postseason when odds are much shorter. Even if they can't win the AFC West, they have a great chance to play either Baltimore or Tennessee in the first round, who have great records but not great teams. I would project the Chargers as road favorites against both of those teams. Brandon Staley is an aggressive coach who will make decisions necessary to beat the league's best teams. They have a high-powered offense, a defense with impact playmakers, and one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. With the implied odds of this bet being just 4.3%, this is a team and a bet worth putting your money on to make some magic happen in January.
To find more of my work, check out my archive on BettingPros and follow my Twitter @JackOBrienNFL
Best NFL Futures to Bet before Week 15