Overall Record: 73-59-1 (0.553)
Last Week: 8-5 (0.615)
Picks Record: 18-20-1 (0.474)
Last Week’s Picks: 2-4 (0.333)
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-7)
MIA +7.5, O/U 46.5
Projection: MIA +8
The Ravens continue to be the comeback kids of the NFL as they had another 14+ point comeback last week. It’s hard to believe this and the load Baltimore is putting on Lamar (11th in dropbacks and 1st in rush attempts) is a sustainable avenue to success but the Ravens continue to win. Miami’s defense has improved off its early season woes and is now up to 15th in EPA/play allowed and 12th in PFF defense grade. However, the Dolphins offense remains one of the league’s worst and while Brissett hasn’t been bad, he’s still a slight downgrade from Tua who looks like he’s going to miss his second straight game. Miami has a solid run defense and the formula to stop the Ravens in the past has been to shut down the run game but Baltimore has developed a great passing offense. It also looks like they’ll get Sammy Watkins back this week so Lamar will finally have a fully healthy group of weapons. I think Baltimore wins but I’m not confident in them covering the 7.5. Ravens -1.5 is a great teaser leg in a week ripe with those opportunities.
Pick: Baltimore -1.5 (with Los Angeles Chargers +3, Philadelphia +8.5, or Las Vegas +8.5)
Atlanta Falcons (4-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
DAL -9, O/U 54.5
Projection: DAL -7.7
Dallas laid an egg last week vs Denver but the offense should be able to bounce back here against a Falcons team that has been below average defensively. The Cowboys offense will get Michael Gallup back this week which is huge as Atlanta can be exploited in the secondary outside of second-year breakout corner, A.J. Terrell. The story of the Falcons’ season has been the resurgence of Matt Ryan who has played outstanding over his last five games. Ryan is up to 7th in PFF grade and 5th in EPA+CPOE composite and ranks 1st in both of those categories since Week 4. Trevon Diggs interception streak was cool but this Dallas secondary has shown it can be thrown on. This game will come down to the Falcons three-headed monster of Matt Ryan, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Kyle Pitts to put up enough points to keep this within nine with Calvin Ridley still out. I’m betting on them to do so.
Pick: Atlanta +9
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
IND -10.5, O/U 47.5
Projection: IND -7.4
The Jaguars pulled off the upset of the season last week and will look to keep that momentum going against the Colts. The matchup between the Colts offense and Jaguars defense is an interesting one as both units are coming off their best performance of the season. Indy has been best rushing the ball this season but if there is anything this Jags defense has been good at it, it’s defending the run where they’ve been about league average. I think the quarterback matchup is fairly even here but the Colts have provided Wentz with a much better supporting cast and defense. I have an edge on the Jaguars but I’m going to fade the performance we saw from Jacksonville’s defense last week.
Pick: None
Cleveland Browns (5-4) @ New England Patriots (5-4)
NE -1.5 O/U 45
Projection: NE +1.9
Cleveland looked more like the team I expected them to be this year in Week 9 and it appears that their offense is actually better without a star receiver. Baker had his best game of the season (89.8 PFF grade) against Cincinnati but will face a tough test this week. The Patriots defense is 10th in EPA/dropback allowed and PFF coverage grade. Cleveland’s defense has graded very well (2nd in PFF grade) but ranks just 21st in EPA/play allowed. They’ve been inconsistent but appear to be getting healthy again. With so many playmakers on that defense it will be important for Mac Jones to take care of the ball and get it out quick. Jones has continued to improve this year and now ranks 9th in PFF grade and 19th in EPA+CPOE composite. Jones gives New England the quarterback advantage but with the upside this Browns team has shown when everything is clicking, it’s hard to bet against them.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5
Buffalo Bills (5-3) @ New York Jets (2-6)
NYJ +12.5, O/U 47.5
Projection: NYJ +10.8
Josh Allen and the Bills offense has not been good this year and that finally cost them on Sunday in Jacksonville. They rank 21st in EPA/play, 21st in offense grade, and Allen is just 15th in PFF grade. This offense was supposed to be one of the league’s best and they’ve only won this year because of their elite defense. Lucky enough for Buffalo, playing the Jets is a perfect get right spot. New York is 31st in EPA/play allowed and PFF grade ahead of only the Lions. I have a slight edge on the Jets and I know we just saw the Bills lose as two touchdown favorites last week, but I’m not betting on the Jets defense to stop an offense this talented. Good luck to Mike White scoring on one of the league’s best defenses as well.
Pick: None
Detroit Lions (0-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
PIT -9, O/U 42.5
Projection: PIT -7.1
Another year, another overrated Steelers team with an inflated record. Big Ben is 35th in PFF grade and 25th in EPA + CPOE composite, his weapons are getting injured left and right, and the Steelers offensive line has one of the league’s worst win rates. With that said, this is going to be a 6-3 football team in great position to make the playoffs as they get Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions at home this week. Goff and the Lions offense have been among the worst in the NFL and the defense has easily been the worst. They’ve been fiesty underdogs all season and maybe they can cook something up out of the bye, but it’s hard to bet on them in this spot with a quarterback who sucks under pressure (and in general to be honest) behind a bad offensive line trying to block T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Alex Highsmith.
Pick: None
New Orleans Saints (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (7-2)
TEN -3, O/U 44.5
Projection: TEN -2.4
How about those Tennessee Titans?! The Titans have actually been the Titans of the NFL so far with impressive wins over Seattle, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Los Angeles. Tannehill is PFF’s 2nd-highest graded quarterback and he has the offense ranking 9th in EPA/play. The surprise for Tennessee this year has been their defense which hasn’t been anything special, but is 13th in EPA/play allowed and 9th in defense grade. Defense has been the Titans’ Achilles’ heel in recent season but now has become a strength with great play out of Kevin Byard, Amani Hooker, Jeffery Simmons, and Harold Landry. The Saints offense has been pedestrian with Trevor Siemen at the helm even though he hasn’t been bad. Alvin Kamara might miss this game and while he’s a running back, he’s still the engine of this offense and would be a huge loss. It’s tough to find a good reason to bet the Saints in this spot especially on the road. New Orleans has a great defense and maybe if Taysom Hill starts, Sean Peyton can draw up some sort of weird gameplan to find a way to win this one. Either way, I’m not betting it.
Pick: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) @ Washington Football Team (2-6)
WFT +9.5, O/U 51.5
Projection: WFT +10
MVP-favorite and PFF’s highest-graded quarterback, Tom Brady, might be without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin this week but I still like the Bucs here. I’m not too worried about Godwin’s status and even if he doesn’t play, Tampa has some exciting, young options behind him in Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden. Washington is 30th in PFF coverage grade and 28th in EPA/dropback allowed so the Bucs offense should have no problem moving the ball even with their injuries. Tampa’s defense hasn’t been great this year but a game against Taylor Heinicke is a great opportunity to return to elite status. Trevor Siemen was weirdly successful, but Tampa has dominated the other bad quarterbacks they’ve faced this year so I expect a similar outcome here. My numbers show a slight edge on the Bucs and I’m comfortable betting that with a single-digit spread here.
Pick: Tampa Bay -9.5
Carolina Panthers (4-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
ARI -10.5, O/U 44
Projection: ARI -8.1
Arizona was dominant last week even with plethora of injuries. Kyler and Hopkins are both very questionable for this game which makes this 10.5-point line pretty enticing to me. We know for sure that Carolina will be without their starting quarterback but Sam Darnold is so bad that it’s hard to think things could get any worse. Carolina has a good defense (3rd in EPA/play allowed) so if we get a Colt McCoy vs Phillip Walker matchup here, I like the Panthers and the 10.5 points they’re getting. Even if Kyler plays, he won’t be at full health so I think betting this now is worth a shot if we get a backup QB matchup with a total in the lower 40’s. 10.5 is just too many points.
Pick: Carolina +10.5
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
LAC -3, O/U 53
Projection: LAC -3.5
Both of these quarterbacks have been great this year as Cousins ranks 3rd in PFF grade and 17th in EPA+CPOE composite while Herbert ranks 5th and 12th in those metrics. Minnesota has the defensive advantage but both of these teams have been putrid against the run. The Vikings are 31st in EPA/rush allowed and the Chargers are 30th. LA is 10th in EPA/rush and 6th in PFF run-block grade and Minnesota loves nothing more than to pound the rock with Dalvin so both teams should have big days on the ground. As every Vikings game does, this is going to come down to the wire and with the edge I have on the Chargers, I like teasing them out to +3.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3 (with Baltimore -1.5, Philadelphia +8.5, or Las Vegas +8.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Denver Broncos (5-4)
DEN -2.5, O/U 45
Projection: DEN -2
Denver played well for the first time against a good team last week and put themselves right back into the thick of the AFC playoff race. Denver’s offense has actually been pretty good this year ranking 11th in EPA/play and 14th in offense grade. They have tons of playmakers and Bridgewater has been solid. Jalen Hurts is playing himself into a chance to be Philadelphia’s long-term plan at quarterback as he ranks 12th in EPA/play. The Eagles offense as a whole hasn’t been great, but the Broncos defense has been beatable as they rank just 17th in EPA/play allowed and 20th in defense grade. I think these two teams are fairly even and the 2.5-point line makes this a perfect teaser opportunity. I’m betting the Eagles at +8.5 and even if Denver outplays them, the backdoor is always open for Jalen Hurts.
Pick: Philadelphia +8.5 (with Baltimore -1.5, Los Angeles Chargers +3, or Las Vegas +8.5)
Seattle Seahawks (3-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-2)
GB -3.5, O/U 49.5
Projection: GB -1.7
This is another matchup with some quarterback uncertainty. It looks like Seattle will have Russell Wilson back but Rodgers’ availability is still questionable. Even if he does play, he’ll be coming off two weeks with COVID and no practice time so I like the Seahawks here. Seattle’s defense has been pretty good this year as they rank 10th in EPA/play allowed and 17th in defense grade. Getting PFF’s 4th-highest graded quarterback back in the lineup will also be a huge boost for them. Seattle +3.5 is a good bet if Rodgers plays and with the possibility that we see another Jordan Love game, I love this bet on the Seahawks.
Pick: Seattle +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
LV +2.5, O/U 52
Projection: LV +2.3
The Chiefs offense just looks broken. Mahomes still ranks 8th in EPA+CPOE composite but is just 24th in PFF grade. The unit as a whole also still ranks in the top five in EPA/play but PFF has them ranked 15th. They have Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce behind a great offensive line with one of the league’s best play-callers so this team could return to form at any minute now, but I’ve also been saying that for weeks now so it’s tough to bet on that happening. Carr and the Raiders had one of their worst performances of the season last week but you have to think that the Gruden and Ruggs situations are finally taking a toll on their on-field play. The defense has been good, especially rushing the passer, and I think the offense bounces back against a Kansas City defense that has improved, but still isn’t good. With the line at +2.5, we have another excellent teaser opportunity that I’m going to bet.
Pick: Las Vegas +8.5 (with Baltimore -1.5, Los Angeles Chargers +3, or Philadelphia +8.5)
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
SF +4, O/U 49
Projection: SF +5.2
I’m really starting to question Kyle Shanahan and this 49ers team after the beating they took from Colt McCoy last week. Jimmy G has been fine, (pretty good the last two weeks actually) but he has the lowest big time throw percentage and 3rd-highest turnover-worthy play percentage which is not a great! I think it’s time to see what Trey Lance can do and if they lose here, I expect to see him in Jacksonville next week. As for the Rams, we saw a dud from Stafford and the offense last week which is a bit concerning, but I think they’ll still be fine. San Francisco is 25th in EPA/play allowed so LA should be able to pour on the points here. My numbers show an edge on the Rams here and so why not take it for a little Monday Night Football action.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -4
Picks:
Atlanta +9
Cleveland +1.5
Tampa Bay -9.5
Carolina +10.5
Seattle +3.5
Los Angeles Rams -4
Teaser Legs: Baltimore -1.5, Los Angeles Chargers +3, Philadelphia +8.5, Las Vegas +8.5
Week 10 NFL Betting Preview