It's crunch time in the NFL season and the playoff race is starting to really heat up. The battle to reach the playoffs is looking especially exciting in the AFC, however this week's futures article finds value on a few NFC teams.
Here is an update on the futures I've written up so far this season:
Baltimore to win the AFC North (Was -130, Now -150)
Cincinnati under 9.5 wins (Was -115, Now -110)
Mac Jones to win offensive rookie of the year (Was -105, Now -500)
San Francisco 49ers over 9.5 wins (Was -105, Now +175)
Kansas City to win the Super Bowl (Was +700, Now +650)
Aidan Hutchinson to be the first overall pick (Was +500, Now +250)
Washington Football Team over 7.5 wins (-150)
I was very skeptical of the Football Team coming into the season and bet the under on their win total in the preseason, but they have impressively rattled off four straight wins coming off the bye to reach an even 6-6. They currently hold the 6th seed in the NFC and have beat a few pretty good teams on this run. They are up to 16th in my power ratings at 0.3 points worse than the average team. Washington's upcoming schedule features only NFC East opponents with two games each against Dallas and Philadelphia and one vs the Giants. I have them projected to win 2.3 of these games and they need just two for this bet to hit. If they can take care of the Giants where they should be at least three points favorites, they need to just steal one game from Dallas or Philadelphia. Heinicke is having the best stretch of play of his career as he is 1st in both EPA/play and completion percentage over expected since Washington's bye. While we can't expect Heinicke to sustain this ridiculous level of play, his elite offensive line, solid weapons, and a much improved defense from earlier this season, should be enough for Washington to sneak out two more wins and hit the over on this bet.
Green Bay Packers over 12.5 wins (-121)
Despite injuries to Jaire Alexander, Za'Darius Smith, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, De'Vondre Campbell, and more, the Packers have managed to go 9-3 and currenlty hold the #2 seed in the NFC. Green Bay's defense has been solid this year even with those injuries as they rank 8th in PFF defense grade and 20th in EPA/play allowed. An average defense is all you really need with Aaron Rodgers starting to get hot and as he leads an offense that ranks 2nd in EPA/play. That offense has dealt with absences from their five most important players yet they've still been an elite unit. Green Bay will start to get those key players back as they come off their bye week and face a favorable remaining schedule. They have home games against Chicago, Cleveland, and Minnesota and road games in Baltimore and Detroit. My numbers make them at least four point favorites in all of those games with an average line of eight points in the Packers' favor. To hit the over on 12.5, the Packers need to win just three of those games and that is a bet I love here as this great Packers team should get even better down the stretch.
Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl (+750)
As a Minnesota native and Vikings fan, it pains me to say this, but the Packers are a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Like I said above, the Packers have been a great team this year and are only going to get stronger. They have an elite quarterback, great offense, a solid defense, smart coaches, and tons of playoff experience. Green Bay also has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona who they are competing against for the important #1 seed and first-round bye. I currently project Green Bay to finish with the NFL's second-best record at 12.9 wins which is just behind Arizona at 13.2. The Packers have risen to second in my power rankings behind only Tampa. This is an elite football team that is getting even healthier and better so even if they can't grab the NFC's top seed, I think betting on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl at +750 is still a great bet.
To find more of my work, check out my archive on BettingPros and follow my Twitter @JackOBrienNFL
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