Overall Record: 65-54-1 (0.546)
Last Week: 9-6 (0.600)
Picks Record: 16-16-1 (0.500)
Last Week’s Picks: 3-2 (0.600)
New York Jets (2-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
IND -10.5, O/U 46.5
Projection: IND -6.5
I gave the Jets a slight upgrade coming off last week’s performance but I’m not buying into Mike White actually being a good quarterback. White certainly was an upgrade over what Wilson was giving them and my numbers show value on the Jets at +10.5 so I’m willing to put some money on them. The Colts beat the 49ers and almost beat the Titans but Carson Wentz had his two worst games of the season in those matchups and is starting to do make some extremely Carson Wentz-type mistakes. Indianapolis should have no problem scoring on what’s been one of the worst defenses in the league this year but as we saw last week, Wentz has shown he’s not afraid to gift the opposing defense free points and short fields.
Pick: New York Jets +10.5
Minnesota Vikings (3-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
BAL -6, O/U 49.5
Projection: BAL -6.7
After an embarrasing loss to Cooper Rush on Sunday Night Football, the Vikings have to travel to Baltimore to play the #4 ranked team in my power ratings. Minnesota’s offense has regressed to a below-average unit that ranks 19th in EPA/play and 20th in PFF offense grade. The Vikings offense has been neutered by early-down rushes (23rd in neutral, early-down pass frequency) and checkdowns (Cousins has NFL’s 3rd-lowest ADOT). If they want any hope of scoring on this Ravens defense that ranks 3rd in EPA/rush allowed, they need to air it out and I have major doubts that they will. Lamar has been great this season and Rashod Bateman should be fully acclimated following the bye week so expect Baltimore is score in bunches. The Ravens are also coming off a bye and have proven to be one of the sharpest teams in the league so I’m betting on them to take advantage of that and a Vikings team in disarray.
Pick: Baltimore -6
New England Patriots (4-4) @ Carolina Panthers (4-4)
CAR +3.5, O/U 41
Projection: CAR +3.3
PJ Walker is set to start this week with Darnold out with a concussion. Walker has graded horribly this season (57th out of 58 among QBs with at least one dropback) but it’s been a small sample and Darnold has been bad himself so I’m only giving them a slight downgrade. Mac Jones ranks 11th in PFF grade and 19th in EPA+CPOE. and has the Patriots offense on a hot streak as continues to impress. He’ll face a tough matchup against the Panthers who ranks 5th in EPA/play allowed and just added Stephon Gilmore to the lineup last week. I’m leaning towards the Patriots here but my numbers disagree so I’d stay away from game.
Pick: None
Cleveland Browns (4-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
CIN -2.5, O/U 47
Projection: CIN +0.1
Both teams are coming off disappointing weeks and are looking to bounce back here. The Odell Beckham Jr. situation and Baker Mayfield’s health has resulted in poor play from the Browns offense recently. It’s tough to trust them against a Bengals defense that gave up 34 points to the Jets last week, but still ranks 10th in EPA/play allowed and 12th in PFF defense grade. Cleveland’s defense will have to carry the load until the offense gets right and that’s a tough ask against PFF’s 6th-highest graded quarterback, 6th-highest graded and 10th-highest offensive unit in EPA/play. My numbers have an edge on the Browns with this line projected as a pick em, but I don’t have confidence in them turning things around this week.
Pick: None
Denver Broncos (4-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
DAL -10, O/U 49.5
Projection: DAL -6.1
Dallas proved they are among the NFL’s elite teams last week as they got a huge road win without Dak Prescott in the lineup. The offense has been dominant as they rank 5th in EPA/play and 1st in offense grade. Denver’s defense hasn’t been the unit we expected them to be this year and now will be without Von Miller so I struggle to see them slowing down the Dallas offense with Dak back. The Broncos have a middling offense the Cowboys defense has proven they can shut bad offenses down so I think this could turn into a blowout.
Pick: None
Buffalo Bills (5-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
JAX +14.5, O/U 48.5
Projection: JAX +14
This seems like a perfect storm for a blowout game as Buffalo has shown they are willing to pour on points and Jacksonville just got run off the field by Geno Smith last week. Buffalo’s defense ranks first in EPA/play allowed and Jacksonville’s offense ranks 26th in EPA/play. The Bills offense hasn’t been the elite unit we expected to see this year but the Jaguars rank last in EPA/play allowed. My numbers have an edge on the Jaguars but I think this matchup is too good to pass up. There is not a single thing that the Jaguars are better than the Bills at and Sean McDermott vs Urban Meyer is about as lopsided of a coaching matchup as you can find.
Pick: Buffalo -14.5
Houston Texans (1-7) @ Miami Dolphins (1-7)
MIA -6.5, O/U 46
Projection: MIA -4.9
We have the DeShaun Watson bowl featuring a battle of 1-7 teams. Miami and Houston rank 29th and 31st in EPA/play on offense and 24th and 32nd in PFF offense grade so this could be an ugly game. I expected Tyrod Taylor to be back last week and I’m pretty sure he’ll be back for this game but who knows. If Tyrod plays, I think Houston is worth a bet as their offense was actually pretty solid through 1.5 games with Tyrod. I’d probably just stay away from this game as both teams are pretty bad and there is uncertainty with Houston’s quarterback siutation. I could see a world where Tyrod plays, the Texans offense is functional, and they win the game. But I also see a world where the Texans just look like the Texans again and Tua manages to muster enough points to cover this spread.
Pick: None (Texans +7.5 if Tyrod plays)
Atlanta Falcons (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-2)
NO -6, O/U 42
Projection: NO -5.2
It is going to be very interesting to see what this Saints offense looks like with either Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian at the helm. They have one of the worst receiver groups in the league and won’t be getting the Michael Thomas reinforcement they expected so it’s on Sean Peyton to figure something out here with another injury to his quarterback. Outside of quarterback and receiver (the two most important positions), this Saints roster is incredible. The defense ranks 3rd in EPA/play allowed despite dealing with injuries throughout this season. I expect a low-scoring affair here so six points is a bit too much. I’d bet on the Falcons but Matt Ryan has proved to be too volatile to trust on a game-to-game basis and has no weapons outside of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson I guess.
Pick: None
Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) @ New York Giants (2-6)
NYG +3, O/U 46.5
Projection: NYG +6.3
My numbers are a bit high on the Raiders but this line is just dumbfounding to me. Yes, they lost a valuable weapon in Henry Ruggs but this team has some depth at pass-catcher and has already dealt with the Jon Gruden situation so I’d bet on them to not skip a beat. The Raiders rank 12th in EPA/play and 15th in offense grade and Derek Carr ranks 5th in PFF grade. They add Waller back to the lineup this week against a defense that ranks 25th in EPA/play allowed and has not been able to generate much of a pass rush. I’ve been a fan of Daniel Jones this year but he’s regressed down to 21st in PFF grade and 23rd in EPA+CPOE composite. The Raiders defense is not the joke it’s been in years past so I expect them to give the Giants trouble here and cover this line easily.
Pick: Las Vegas -3
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
PHI +1, O/U 50
Projection: PHI +5.2
This is another line that I really don’t understand. It was great to see Hurts play well and the Eagles blow out the Lions, but it was the Lions. Herbert hasn’t been the MVP-candidate type player he was to start the year but still ranks 9th in PFF grade and is leading an offense that ranks 9th in EPA/play and 13th in PFF grade. I find it tough to believe the Eagles middling defense stops this team from putting up points in bunches and this isn’t a big enough of a line for Jalen Hurts to sneak his way into a back-door cover.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -1
Green Bay Packers (7-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
KC -7.5, O/U 48
Projection: KC -4.2
I am thrilled to have an opportunity to bet on Jordan Love here. I think Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches in the league and I trust him and Love to get the ball to the Adams and Jones and score enough points against the Chiefs defense to keep this within a touchdown. Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones almost beat this team so why are we all of a sudden trusting the 30th-ranked defense in EPA/play allowed and an offense that just looks out of sync to cover this spread. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could return to being Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs any week now but Jordan Love should provide just enough to keep this game close with the help of great playmakers, a solid defense, and a smart coach.
Pick: Green Bay +7.5
Arizona Cardinals (7-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
SF +1, O/U 46
Projection: SF +2.3
I’m pretty sure Kyler and DHop will play in this game but there is some uncertainty regarding their health. It’s impossible to handicap this game without knowing their status but with the assumption they are playing I think this line is pretty fair. The Cardinals still have a great defense and even with a banged-up offense, they should be able to put up points against a 49ers defense that has been just okay. I’ve had my doubts about Shanahan and Garoppollo this year but they looked great last week, they could get George Kittle back, and Brandon Aiyuk is starting to be more involved. With the injury uncertainty involved here, I’d stay away from this game.
Pick: None
Tennessee Titans (6-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-1)
LAR -7.5, O/U 53.5
Projection: LAR -6
We have a great matchup here with two of the hottest teams in the league. The Titans will be without the engine of their offense and while I’m part of the running backs don’t matter crowd, I think Henry does have at least some value to Tennessee’s offense. The Rams are a well-oiled machine and I find it tough to believe in the Titans 21st-ranked defense in EPA/play allowed stopping them. The Rams defense has been great this year and now adds Von Miller to it. Tannehill and Brown can connect for an explosive play at any time but if their is any defense I’d bet on stopping it, it’d be the Rams. My numbers have a slight edge on the Titans but I’d stay away from this game.
Pick: None
Chicago Bears (3-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
PIT -6.5, O/U 40
Projection: PIT -3.5
Matt Nagy was out last week and Fields and the Bears’ offense had their best game yet, how about that! Shocking. I’m guessing Nagy is back this week and he’ll face a difficult task here against the Steelers defense which ranks 13th in EPA/play allowed and 10th in PFF defense grade. We’ve seen the Bears offense just get incapacitated by good pressure this year and the Steelers are 3rd in PFF pass rush grade. There’s nothing I love more than betting against Big Ben and the Steelers but they’ve got some great weapons on that offense and they might only need like 17 points to cover this spread. I’d stay away from this one.
Pick: None
Picks:
New York Jets +10.5
Baltimore -6
Buffalo -14.5
Las Vegas -3
Los Angeles Chargers -1
Green Bay +7.5
Week 9 Betting Preview