Draft prop season is in full swing now as many markets have opened up and we've even seen some massive line movement. There has been plenty of recent risers and fallers as we start to get a sense of how the league views players, but the top of this draft is still a huge question mark compared to past years. That gives us an opportunity to find some solid bets as we head into the month of April.
Over 4.5 ACC players selected in first round (-105)
The ACC has three first rounds locks: NC State tackle, Ikem Ekwonu, Florida State EDGE, Jermaine Johnson, and Pitt QB, Kenny Pickett. All three of those players rank within the top 15 in expected draft position (EDP) on GridingTheMocks.com, a great site for draft data that I reference frequently. With those three locked in as first-round picks, we need two more ACC players to hit the over. I think Boston College guard, Zion Johnson, and Clemson corner, Andrew Booth get us there. Johnson is as solid of an offensive lineman as they come and is a great bet as a prospect. He ranks 24th in EDP. Booth has been stand-out corner since he arrived at Clemson and ranks in the top 10 on some draft boards. He ranks 28th in EDP. Both are firmly in the first round range and teams at the bottom of the first round have needs at their position. Tennesee, Tampa, Green Bay, and Cincinnati have needs along the offensive line, and Arizona, Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Detroit need a corner.
With all that being said, I didn't even mention that the ACC also has quarterback prospect, Sam Howell, who could sneak into the first round. Howell was thought of a potential top-5 pick before last season, but after losing most of his supporting cast to the NFL, he had a bit of a down year. Howell still has exciting traits, including a huge arm, and has an EDP of 34.8, just outside the first round.
The ACC has three locks: Ekwonu, Johnson, and Pickett, so any combination of Johnson, Booth or Howell being selected in the first round hits the over here. I love that bet at -105 odds.
Kayvon Thibodeaux draft position under 6.5 (+135)
Oregon EDGE, Kayvon Thibodeaux was the consensus #1 overall pick throughout the entire season this year. Since then, he's seen his stock fall down to a fringe top five pick. Much of this fall, for whatever reason, is stemming from off the field concerns with Thibodeaux and his pursuit of business ventures away from the football field. That is what it is, but let's not forget that Thibodeaux is a day one NFL starter with the build and traits to become an All-Pro caliber player. Pro Football Focus compares him to Myles Garrett, and Danny Kelly of the Ringer compared him to Khalil Mack, and a T-Rex in an F-14. Despite the fall of Thibodeaux's draft stock, he still has an EDP of 5.8, which ranks 4th in the class. On top of that, all five teams at the top of the draft have a need at edge defender. I understand the concerns with Thibodeaux, and it's important to respect the market's view on him, but I don't see this player falling outside of the top five and getting this bet at +135 is a slam dunk.
Best NFL Draft Props to Bet (3/29/22)